Baseball betting favorites win by exactly one run about 25 percent of the time. How might that affect our free MLB picks on Wednesday night’s Astros-A’s game out in Oakland? MLB Betting Notes and Free MLB Picks: Astros at A’s.
Game 2 of a three-game series … Houston took game 1 Tuesday night 6-3, winning as -145 favorites on the MLB betting odds and covering against the run line at +110 … most of Wednesday’s MLB betting odds opened the Astros at around -160, but early betting action drove that line up as much as 35 cents at some shops … Tuesday’s game also snuck over a total of 8.5 when Oakland scored a meaningless run in the bottom of the eighth … the Astros now lead this season series six games to one, outscoring the A’s 50-20 … also, the overs are 4-2-1, as those seven games have averaged 10 runs per … Houston now owns a six-game winning streak … the Astros are also 8-2 on the overs their last 10 games, mainly because they’re scoring 5-6-7 runs with consistency … Oakland is 6-5 over its last 11 games … however, the A’s have only scored six runs total over their last three.
At 43-25 Houston trails division-leading Seattle by a half-game in the AL West, while at 34-33 Oakland sits nine games out.
The Astros got some good news Tuesday with the return of SS Carlos Correa … he went 2-for-4, walked once, scored twice and knocked in a run.
Blackburn (1-0, 1.50) is making his second start of this season … last Thursday he held Kansas City to one run through six innings of a 4-1 A’s victory … he also threw 52 strikes out of 67 pitches … last year, as a rookie, Blackburn went 4/10 on quality starts, and Oakland went 6-4 with him … this will be his first-ever start against Houston, which can give a pitcher an edge early in the game … Cole (7-1, 2.16) is 12/13 on quality starts this year, and four for his last four … last Thursday he limited Texas to one run and three hits through six innings …over his last four starts he’s allowed nine runs through 26 innings … the Astros are 11-2 with Cole this year … in two starts this season against the A’s Cole has given up four runs through 12 2/3 innings, with 21 strikeouts … Houston won those games by scores of 8-4 and 4-1.
The Astros ranks 10th in the Majors this season against right-handed pitching with a .738 team OPS …
Oakland ranks 11th against RH pitching with a .738 OPS (fractions behind Houston) … the Astros bullpen ranks 4th in MLB with a 2.94 ERA and 1st with a 1.11 WHIP … also, Houston relievers only had to throw two innings Tuesday night … the A’s bullpen ranks 8th in ERA at 3.47 and 14th in WHIP at 1.32 … it threw 4 1/3 innings last night.
Of Houston’s 11 wins with Cole this year nine have come by at least two runs. And we like shaving the price on significant road favorites by betting against the run line.
Free MLB Pick: Astros -1.5 (-110) at CG
MLB Betting Notes and Free MLB Picks: Astros at A’s