Probably the most uninteresting ranked-teams matchup when it comes to the final result will take place at Davis Wade Stadium in Starkville between the Bulldogs and the Crimson Tide. In favor of this statement goes the fact that this ranked-team matchup has the highest spread set at -13 in Crimson Tide advantage. Alabama is 9-0 this year and they’re coming off from a hard-earned home win LSU 24:10, while the Bulldogs are coming off from a comfortable home win over the UMass Minutemen, 34:23.
The Bulldogs are very good against the spread this season with a 6-3-0 record while they are 2-7 in Totals. The Crimson Tide on the other side fairly bad in ATS this season with 4-5-0 record same as in Over/Under.
Head-to-head matchups between these two teams go as far as 1896 when the first duel took place (20:0 Alabama victory in Tuscaloosa). Since then, teams locked horns in exactly 100 times and this will be the honorary 101st game that will feature Bulldogs and Crimson Tide. Alabama holds the edge for now with 79 wins oppose to only 18 by Mississippi State, while three games ended with a draw. Crimson Tide is also riding a nine-game winning streak against the Bulldogs. Last time MSST celebrated the win was in 2007 (17:12 win by MSST in Starkville).
At home, Mississippi State is 4-1 against the spread in last five games and 0-5 in Over/Under, while Alabama is 1-1-0 against the spread on the road this season and 1-1 in Over/Under.
Bulldogs vs. Crimson Tide
Spread: Mississippi State +13 (-110); Alabama -13 (-110) Get the latest CFB odds direct from Las Vegas with WagerTalk Live Lines
Moneyline: Mississippi State +400; Alabama -500
Totals: Over 52.5 (-110); Under 52.5 (-110)
MISSISSIPPI STATE BULLDOGS
Dan Mullen is 0-8 against Nick Saban’s Alabama since he arrived at the helm of the Bulldogs and there are no indicators that it won’t be 0-9 after Saturday’s game. Another concerning fact is that the duels between these two foes haven’t even been close in last nine duels, with Bulldogs scoring more than 10 points only once during that span. Still, home-field advantage should count for something and we’ll hopefully see a contest and not one-team domination.
The main reason for optimism comes in the name of quarterback Nick Fitzgerald whose main weapon remains the ground game. He tops his team in rushing with 891 yards and passing for 1459 yards along with 13 passing and 12 rushing scores. Having in mind that Alabama doesn’t possess the best rushing defense in the country anymore, this double treat might have some influence on the outcome of the game, but frankly, even if it does blossom, it probably won’t be enough to affect the final winner.
Michael Story (knee), Gerri Green (ankle), Gabe Myles (foot) and Donald Gray (groin) are listed as questionable.
ALABAMA CRIMSON TIDE
As aforementioned, injury-plagued linebacker corps cost the Crimson Tide the accolade of the best-run defense in the country this season but they’re far from being anything but great in this aspect. The team that is being given the biggest chance to appear in the national championship tournament will meet a ranked-opponent for the only third time this season and there shouldn’t be many problems when it comes to recording another win. They are especially successful against MSST with last loss being recorded 10 years ago.
On the offensive side of the field, the key ingredient is the team effort as Alabama doesn’t have any current top-stars on their roster. QB Jalen Hurts do have some solid numbers posted but it’s a no match with the best quarterbacks in college football at the moment. Rub game also flourishes with six guys over 100 yards rushing. Damien Harris leads the caravan with 730 yards and 10 scores while Calvin Ridley holds the edge when it comes to the receiving corps with 585 yards and two touchdowns. DB Ronnie Harrison stands out in the defense with 50 tackles, 2.5 sacks and three interceptions recorded.
Minkah Fitzpatrick (hamstring) and Jonah Williams (undisclosed) are listed as questionable for Saturday.
Bulldogs vs. Crimson Tide Betting Lines
The spread has been constantly high when it comes to the Alabama team and that’s the main reason for their poor ATS record. By my opinion, this is the case again with two touchdowns difference and that’s the reason why I’ll go with the hosts here. The final winner should not come in question while also 53 points in Totals seem to be pretty high.
My Pick: Mississippi State +13 (-110)
Totals: Under 52.5 (-110)