New England holds a huge advantage on Philadelphia in playoff and Super Bowl experience. Based on that alone the Patriots should be favored by about three touchdowns. Instead, they’re favored by less than one for Super Bowl 52 Sunday evening in Minneapolis (6:30 pm ET, NBC). Free Super Bowl LII Betting Odds and Picks: Eagles vs. Patriots.
Most Super Bowl LII betting odds opened New England at -5.5, with an over/under of 48. But Philly got some lovin’ in the early betting, dipping that spread to -4.5, which is where it sat as of about 72 hours before kickoff.
Super Bowl LII Betting Match-Up
Philadelphia (15-3 SU, 12-6 ATS this season) is coming off perhaps its finest performance of this season, a 38-7 romp over Minnesota in the NFC championship game two weeks ago. The Eagles spotted the Vikings the first seven points of the game, then scored the last 38 to earn their first Super Bowl bid since 2004.
Including its two post-season victories Philly is 4-1 both SU and ATS this season against teams that made the playoffs.
New England (15-3 SU, 12-6 ATS), meanwhile, reached the Super Bowl for the third time in the last four seasons by coming from behind to beat Jacksonville in the AFC championship game two weeks ago 24-20. The Patriots trailed the Jags late in the second quarter 14-3 and 20-10 early in the fourth but scored twice, made a defensive stand, then ran out the clock for the victory.
New England is 7-2 SU, 6-3 ATS against teams that made the playoffs this year.
These teams met most recently back in December of 2015, when the Eagles, as nine-point dogs, used three defensive/special teams touchdowns to upset the Patriots in Foxboro 35-28.
On the injury front New England TE Rob Gronkowski got knocked out of that AFC championship game with a concussion, but he is expected to play Sunday.
By the Numbers
Philly ranked seventh in the league this season in total offense at 366 yards per game and fourth in total defense, allowing 307. That Eagles offense struggled a bit after losing QB Carson Wentz back in Week 14, but it looked very good against a very good Vikings defense two weeks ago, racking up 456 total yards.
New England ranked No. 1 in offense at 394 YPG but 29th in defense, allowing 366. However, that defensive ranking is misleading, considering that unit improved as the season progressed and played so often while protecting leads. That Patriots defense also ranked fifth in points allowed at just 18.5 per game.
The totals are split 9-9 in Eagles games this season, which are averaging 46 points.
Unders are 10-8 in Patriots games, which are averaging 47 points.
Free Super Bowl LII Betting Picks
No other team in the league has the knack for making plays when it needs them than New England. Plus, the refs seem to like them. Meanwhile, Philly’s had a nice run, but it’ll be hard-pressed to come up with an effort like the NFC championship game. We’re giving the points with the Patriots. Also, we’re thinking a cautious start combined with two pretty good defenses will help keep this game under the total.