The Titans pulled a shocker last week in Kansas City, but they’ll really have their hands full when they visit the Patriots for an AFC divisional-round playoff bout Saturday evening up in Foxboro (8:15 pm ET, CBS). This game involves a double-digit point spread; do we take the points with our free NFL playoff pick? Or give ’em?

The Line

Most NFL playoffs betting odds opened New England at -13.5, with an over/under of right around 47. Through the week the only real movement saw the total bumped to 48.

AFC Divisional-Round Match-Up

Tennessee (10-7 SU, 9-7-1 ATS) is back in the divisional round of the playoffs for the first time since 2008, thanks to its 22-21 come-from-behind victory at Kansas City last week. The Titans, getting eight points on the betting line, looked terrible in the first half of that game, and trailed 21-3 into the locker room. But the defense stepped up, QB Marcus Mariota scored on a near-miracle rebound pass to himself and threw a score to Eric Decker and RB Derrick Henry found a groove, as Tennessee won the second half 19-0 and the game.

So including last week Tennessee is 4-2 SU, 4-1-1 ATS against teams that made the playoffs this season.

New England (13-3 SU, 11-5 ATS), meanwhile, extended its playoff string to nine straight seasons this year, won the AFC East again and earned the top seed in the AFC bracket. The Patriots only started 2-2 but they’re 11-1 SU, 10-2 ATS since, including a 26-6 decision over the Jets in Week 17, covering as 17-point chalk.

On the season New England is 5-2 both SU and ATS against teams that made the playoffs.

These teams last met two seasons ago, a 33-16 Patriots victory also at Gillette Stadium. New England led by double-digits basically all day, and in the end kicked a field goal with a minute to go to cover as 15-point favorites.

Totals Report

Overs are 9-8 in Titans games this season, which are averaging 43 points.

Unders are 9-7 in Patriots games, which are averaging 47 points.

Free NFL Playoffs Pick

There’s not too much doubt as to the winner of this game; NFL double-digit favorites are 29-4 SU this season. But they’re also only 15-17-1 ATS. Ultimately, Tennessee can do a couple of things underdogs need to do to keep games like this close; they can run the ball, and they can play some defense. We’re hoping the Titans avoid the turnovers, maybe create a couple themselves and hit Tom Brady a few times. We’ll take the points here with Tennessee.

 

Dizzy McGee

Dizzy McGee has been hooked on sports betting since the day he hit a 3-team NFL parlay at the age of 10. With 30 years of sports betting under his belt he now shares his betting insights and theories by writing about them at WagerTalk.

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