The Arnold Palmer Invitational is played at the Bay Hill Club and Lodge in Orlando.  This is a course where long iron play and solid scrambling will be important for players to score well.  There are many different styles of play that can win this tournament, so current form and course history will be important this week.  Since this is an Invitational there will be a smaller amount of golfers in the field.  This will most likely lead to us having to sweat some of these plays into the weekend because a smaller percentage of golfers will be cut in this tournament compared to a standard tournament.  The pressure is on for us to continue this ridiculous run we are on.  Here are the Arnold Palmer Invitational Picks and match ups I am looking to play this week:

Ian Poulter +115 vs. Emiliano Grillo

Poulter is a veteran golfer who is looking for that breakout tournament.  I believe this is the tournament where he puts it all together.  His game has been trending slightly upward, and his course history is solid. Poulter has finished in the top 25 in his last 5 trips to Bay Hill.  Grillo is a golfer that I will continue to fade until he starts playing well again.  Although he has made his last 3 cuts, Grillo has not put together a decent Saturday or Sunday to get him anywhere in contention with the remaining field.

Ryan Palmer -125 vs. Keegan Bradley

Like last week, this is a complete fade on Keegan Bradley.  He still has not figured out how to putt since they banned the anchor putter, and I will continue to fade him under the right circumstances.  Missing 5 of his last 6 cuts, it is difficult to back Bradley right now.  Taking a solid golfer against him provides a lot of value.  Palmer does not have a good course history at Bay Hill by any means, but his form has been good.  He has made the cut his last 7 events.  You may be able to get Palmer at a lower price if you watch it closely.  It was at -130 and has dropped slightly, so keep an eye on this one.

Kevin Kisner -105 vs. Zach Johnson

Kisner’s game is trending in the right direction.  He is starting to play solid golf again, and he is capable of beating anyone when his form is good.  Kisner’s stats matchup very well for Bay Hill also.  He is a solid ball striker and is a good scrambler.  He is also a very good putter on the Bermuda greens that Bay Hill has.  Zach Johnson is an excellent golfer that has a good history at the Arnold Palmer, but his form has been very inconsistent this season.  His lack of form could really hurt him at this course.

William McGirt -115 vs. Francesco Molinari

McGirt has been playing great golf of late.  He has 4 top 25 finishes in his last 6 starts.  His game also matches up very well for this course.  He is a very solid putter that has had some good finishes at Bay Hill in the past.  Molinari is a solid ball striker that has a good history at this course, but his form has not been good to this point.  Although this could be  the place he turns his game around, I think he will need a few more events to make that happen completely.

Marc Leishman -110 vs. Brandt Snedeker

Although Snedeker started the season off red hot, the injury bug got to him.  He has been sidelined with a rib injury and had to withdraw his last scheduled tournament.  I expect Snedeker to try and get this tournament in before the highly anticipated Masters, but I do not expect him to be able to fully contend with his ribs nagging him with every swing. Marc Leishman is a solid golfer who is coming into Bay Hill in good form.  His scrambling ability will really help him in this tournament.  I expect a good finish for Leishman and with Snedeker not fully healthy I think -110 is good value here.

Brock Downs

Brock has been betting golf successfully for the past 3 seasons. Through advanced statistics and metrics he has been finding matchups to take advantage of. Under the handle Doubledown23 has recently been posting plays and leans that are hitting at a crazy rate. Check out the results for yourself on the forums. You won’t be disappointed!

Brock Downs has 11 posts and counting. See all posts by Brock Downs

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