The Minnesota Vikings, rather quietly, are the best bet in the NFL over recent seasons, going 42-19 ATS over their last 61 games. How might that NFL betting trend factor into our free NFL picks on Week 1’s Vikings-49ers match-up in Minneapolis?

The Spread

Most Week 1 NFL betting odds opened Minnesota at -4.5 over San Francisco, with an over/under of 47. In early NFL betting action many books bumped the Vikes to -5.

Match-Up

The 49ers finished 6-10 last season but 9-7 ATS. And they really played two seasons. They started 1-10, traded for QB Jimmy Garappolo, then finished 5-0. That late spurt helped San Francisco play over a regular-season wins over/under of 5 last year. With heightened expectations the 49ers now face a total of 8.5 for 2018.

The Vikings finished 13-3 last season (11-5 ATS), won the NFC North and reached the NFC championship game, where they folded against eventual Super Bowl champion Philadelphia. The Vikes also played over a wins total of 8.5, and now face one of 10 for this season.

The big news for Minnesota over the off-season was the changing of the quarterbacks, switching from Case Keenum to former Redskin Kirk Cousins. But we’re not convinced that’s an upgrade.

By the Numbers

San Francisco ranked 12th in the NFL in total offense last year at 349 YPG and 21st in rushing at 104 YPG. But that total yardage figure jumps to 410 PG in the five games Garappolo started. Meanwhile, the 49ers defense ranked 24th overall at 352 YPG and 22nd against the run at 116 YPG.

The Vikings ranked 11th in total offense last year at 357 YPG, 7th in rushing at 122 YPG, No. 1 in total defense at 276 YPG and No. 2 against the run at just 84 YPG. So Minnesota out-gained opponents by 81 YPG and out-rushed foes by 38 YPG.

The Rivalry/Recent History

Minnesota leads the all-time series with San Francisco 21-19, going 5-2 over the last seven meetings. Most recently, though, the 49ers beat the Vikings 20-3 back in 2015. But that’s already a long time ago.

Totals Report

The totals split 8-8 in 49ers games last year, which averaged 45 total points.

The unders went 9-7 in Vikings games last year, which averaged 40 points.

Free NFL Pick

We though the Vikings had a good thing going with Keenum, but they went another way. As mentioned above we’re not sure that was a good idea. The Niners, meanwhile, are hoping to carry over momentum from last year, and believe they’ve upgraded their defense. We’re taking Frisco and the points here.

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Dizzy McGee

Dizzy McGee has been hooked on sports betting since the day he hit a 3-team NFL parlay at the age of 10. With 30 years of sports betting under his belt he now shares his betting insights and theories by writing about them at WagerTalk.

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